The clock is ticking on US President Donald Trump’s threat to launch military strikes against Iran – but even if he gives the green light to his generals and admirals, will they achieve his aims?
Hopes of a diplomatic solution rest on last-ditch talks over Tehran’s nuclear program in Switzerland between Iranian officials and American negotiators, headed by special envoys, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner.
Trump has insisted he wants a peaceful outcome, but Iran appears resolute in not abandoning uranium enrichment and rejects US and western claims it is aiming to build a nuclear bomb.
Over the past weeks, the Pentagon has deployed its biggest force to the Middle East since the 2003 second Gulf War.
The hardware includes an armada of warships, including aircraft carriers, off Iranian waters and aircraft to nearby bases.
The USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group, was moved from the Pacific and arrived in the Arabian Sea last month. The deployment was followed by the USS Gerald Ford carrier strike group which was making its way to the coast of Israel.
Air bases in Saudi Arabia and Jordan are now home to US F-35 Lightning II stealth fighters and advanced electronic warfare aircraft such as E/A-18 Growlers, capable of wrecking enemy communication networks.
E-3 Sentries, critical for warning US commanders of incoming enemy attacks, have also been flown to the region.
But despite the impressive firepower at Trump’s disposal, one expert is warning the US commander-in-chief has backed himself into a corner in which he must give his troops the green light.
“If the Iranians come back from these talks and refuse the American demands, Trump will be forced to use military force … because if he doesn’t he’ll look weak,” said security analyst Malcolm Davis, from the Australian Strategic Policy Institute.
Trump has three options if the negotiations with Iran finish in deadlock: continue diplomatic pressure; a limited strike in the form of air attacks, probably targeting military and nuclear facilities; a full-scale campaign aimed at toppling the Iranian regime.
There’s growing opinion Trump will order a limited attack, designed at putting pressure on Iran, before moving to a more extensive military campaign, possibly lasting weeks, involving missile attacks from the sea and air, cyber attacks, but not American troops on the ground.
The trouble is none of this is guaranteed to bring down the Iranian government or achieve US goals of making the Islamic state nuclear free, says Davis.
“The Americans are faced with a dilemma … if they do these missile strikes or a more prolonged campaign, it still won’t fix the issue … they’ll be faced with a weeks-long campaign that is likely to be opposed by the majority of the American people and Congress.
“The trouble for Trump is what is going to do if the Iranians come back and say ‘we’re still here.”
– With CNN