Donald Trump manipulating markets with Iran war claims, says senator

A top US senator has levelled a remarkable accusation against Donald Trump.

Yesterday the US president declared he would resume strikes against Iran, causing markets to drop around the world.

But Hawaii Democrat Brian Schatz was suspicious.

“I think the war hasn’t really stopped. I think he tries to manipulate markets, to say that a deal is imminent,” the senator said.

“And there’s no real evidence that a deal is imminent.”

And hours after declaring an attack on Iran was imminent, Trump overnight backed down.

“Based on the fact that discussions with the Islamic Republic of Iran have been brought to the highest level of Iranian leadership and approved, I have, as President of the United States of America, cancelled the scheduled strikes and bombings against Iran this evening,” Trump announced on Truth Social.

“Discussions and final points have been, in both concept and great detail, approved by all parties involved, including the United States, Israel, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, Turkey, Pakistan, Bahrain, Kuwait, Jordan, Egypt, and others.

“The Naval Blockade will remain in full force and effect until this Transaction is finalised — Time and place of the signing to be announced shortly.”

And moments after Trump’s announcement, markets surged.

Last month it was revealed that nine Polymarket accounts had made millions betting on US military actions with a 98 per cent win rate.

After those revelations came to light, two Democrats demanded why the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) had not taken action.

“Markets tied to war and government action create a perverse incentive structure for those with the most sensitive information to profit the most,” Representatives Gabe Amo and Greg Casar said in a joint statement.

“That risk is unacceptable.”

Trump has been actively trading on the share markets during his presidency, against historical precedent.

But public disclosure laws of the share market activity of politicians does not require a great deal of precision.

As a result, there is no direct proof Trump is gaming the markets, as Schatz has accused.

But a number of suspiciously timed bets have raised questions as to who is profiting off US government secrets.

In March, a series of trades worth $800 million was made minutes before a Truth Social post from Trump.

An entity or several entities traded heavily on S&P 500 and oil futures, making an immense sum of money in the process.

Betting app Kalshi refused to pay out $77 million in winnings to punters who bet Ayatollah Ali Khamenei would be out of office by March 1.

Khamenei was killed by a US and Israeli bombing strike hours before the deadline was reached.

Meanwhile on Polymarket, 150 accounts bet more than a million dollars that the US would strike Iran the next day.

And in January, a Polymarket user made about $570,000 betting that Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro would be out of office before the end of the month.

They had doubled down on their bet hours before the US seized the leader in a military strike.